Saturday, September 30, 2006

Canada - Oats - Production, Consumption, Imports, & Exports

More on the oat market. I was wondering if production levels had increased or decreased over the last 5/10 years. If you look at the linked chart, you can see bullish indicators. (Remember these are 2005 numbers)

  • Oat production has settled into a lower pattern. (1,330,000 ha or 3,550,000 mt).
  • Total domestic comsumption is trending up a bit (2,200,000 mt in 2005) up less than a point year over year
  • Ending stocks were down year over year (854,000 mt) a nice 13 % drop

Add to this the USDA report on the previous post of 16% drop in oat stocks year over year and you get pretty good demand for oats. If planting intentions are not strong next year, milling oats could be a profitable cereal option ou into 2007?

Now all that has to be done is grow heavy plump clean oats that yield 100 bu/ac. + and find some one to buy them. EASY!


Canada - Oats - Production, Consumption, Imports, & Exports

Graph of Ethanol Prices - Last 10 Years

Graph of Ethanol Prices - Last 10 Years
Just a bit of ethanol info. I've seen this chart in a few places. The early hype is over or maybe ethanol follows gas price (?) It will be interesting to follow it's path.

Friday, September 29, 2006

What About Oats: I know it's to late for this year but

What about oats?

I exchanged E-mails with Dennis Galbraith at Can-Oat in Portage la Praire today. Dec. price for a bushel of milling oats is $2.30 per bu. Do the math 100 bu./ac. X $2.30 = $230 per acre Not Bad!


Over the winter months I often talk to producers about rotations. What to grow next year, what fits in the rotation, what will make money, I don't want to grow wheat on wheat, I can't go wheat then barley, I'm getting canola to close together and Flax doesn't pay enough.

What about oats?

I'm going to try and post some good info on milling oats. I've got a least one large field that produced pretty well. I will try and post data on the field. Here are a couple of sites to start;

http://www.poga.ca/images/Articles/2_oatopportunities_apr06.pdf#search=%22milling%20oat%20production%22
FarmAssist - Agronomic Resources - Alerts

The "Next Greatest" Thing in Farming: Ethanol and Some of the Other "Next Greatest"

AgWeb - Farm Journal Test Plots, Agriculture Field Tests, Growing Soybeans, Growing Corn
This story shows the impact biofuel production can have. Biofuels have exciting implications for the farm sector, cattle and crop. Check out the flow chart for a good look at a plants production.

I know it's a "motherhood" statement, but I don't think we know yet how big bio-fuel could be. I've seen a lot of "next greatest" happen in farming, a lot of them don't live up to the hype. But some changes have made really positive differences on the farm. Three "next greatest" come to mind
  • Canola - Where would we be without canola in western Canada. For extended periods in the last 20 years farms made the money on canola and grew wheat to fill in the rotation
  • Zero till - It's everything from zero to min. till and all in between. In 20 years air seeders and air drills have taken over the prairies. They've make production cheaper and more efficient. (and made Monsanto a pile of money) This year's drought would have created a crop failure in our local area, but with present production methods (and amazing genetics) crops pulled through
  • GMO Crops - If not for Roundup Ready canola we could not be growing canola in zero till systems as successfully as we do. I know there's more to be said, both good and bad, about GMO's, but they've been positive for production.

Heartland investors Tour: A Search for Bio-Fuel investors

A link to a venture capital tour for American investors interested in Bio- fuel. In this case ethanol. The Americans don't mess around do they.


Heartland investors Tour

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Midge damage:Some pictures

Midge damage (MDGE DMG) - Grading Factors
I'm getting midge damage reports from farmers. Check the post pictures. The damage in the post seems a little heavy compared to what I have seen down graded. Maybe a second opinion is needed if your buyer is quick to judge(?)

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Australian Canola Report Looks Gloomy

I was getting ready for the fall canola seed marketing season and "googled up" the Australian oilseed crop report. My dad always said something had to go bad for another part of the world for farmers here to gain. I read this poor crop report as abull for the canola/oilseed market?
http://www.australianoilseeds.com/__data/page/35/AOF_Crop_Report_Aug_06.pdf

Canola Growers Want You: to sign a petition

Join the crowd ! Support Biodiesel. I'm kidding really a few thousand of these might help with support down the road. It is a minority goverment!
Manitoba Canola Growers Association

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Looking at Malt, Hard Wheat and Winter Wheat Varieties

I really saw the differences in cereal varieties this year. While yield was generally good, other traits showed up:

  • Barrie and Superb wheats needed fungicide for leaf and stripe rust(We used TILT of 2000 to 3000 ac.), even in our dry conditions
  • Bounty and Mckenzie wheat had rust, but it moved very slowly and did not require fungicide
  • Legacy six-row malt wieghted and yielded well in very bad conditions
  • Some winter wheat varieties yield a lot higher than others. I don't have a handle on this yet, but caution in selection is needed.
  • Mckenzie wheat had decent protein, while some others were very high. (This is a tough one, with dry conditions and different soil, rain and seeding dates, but it looks that way?)
  • Imagine wheat yielded well, but looks to be prone to leaf disease (could be that huge flag leaf)?

Check out the last three posts from Alberta. I know we have our own information in Manitoba, but it does not hurt to look.

2006 Agronomic Performance of Winter Wheat

2006 Agronomic Performance of Winter Wheat

2006 Agronomic Performance of Malting Barley

2006 Agronomic Performance of Malting Barley

2006 Agronomic Performance of Hard Red Spring Wheat

2006 Agronomic Performance of Hard Red Spring Wheat

The Daily, Tuesday, September 26, 2006. Farm Product Price Index

This is an interesting chart. A farm commodity price index using 1997 production value as 100%. Note how 2006 production fares. Field Crops don't fair to well. ( I guess we know that). However more support can be seen in these numbers for an uptrend in oil seed. Cattle aren't doing to badly. Of course BSE has something to do with price since 2004. Supply managed production really comes out on top. I mean good for the dairy and egg guys. Makes you see making a price is better than taking a price.

The Daily, Tuesday, September 26, 2006. Farm Product Price Index

Monday, September 25, 2006

M. J.'s good flax field

In a risk area that flax averages 20 bu/ac. a 35 bu acre crop gets your attention. One of our farmers did everything right on a 240 acre field. I called Murray for the details on Friday

Burn Off - .33 L/ac. Renegade on May 8
Seed Date - May 9
Variety - Bethune
Seed Rate - 48 lbs/ac in to standing wheat stubble
Seeder - SeedMaster air drill
Fertilizer - 75-25-0-10 side banded using a dry blend
InCrop Applications - Tank mix Centurian (50ac/cs) and Buctril M (20 ac/jug) in 5gal/ac H2O
Application Timing - June 13
Temp - 22 C
Crop Stage - 4 in plus (We waited on this field. The field was dry and slow to get going as a result) We are spraying flax larger now than we use to, 4 in high is now what I look for.

Comments; This field was super clean all the way. Murray used a canola blend, a high rate of fertilizer for our area. We preharvested the field with 1 L of Factor to aid cutting, dry down wild buckwheat. (Buckwheat was the only weed present in the field)

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Products & Services: Herbicides: Axial Time Lapse

My farmers had about 1000 acres of Axial (wild oat/foxtail barley herbicide)from Syngenta this past year. Mostly on Barley ( but registered for wheat too).Axial worked pretty well. It is a Group One product, but a new spin. I understand it works on two sites in the plant(?) It might help break herbicide rotations. We will see in the next couple of years.
We understand it will be premium priced in the next couple of years ($18 per acre
Products & Services: Herbicides: Axial is a link to a nice time lapse on it's action on wild oats (I think?)

Southwest Credit Union Newsletter

Click on the title. Southwest Credit Union has a nice newsletter online. I've posted the Crop outlook page.

A BASF Blurb Of Bad News

BASF is doing allright. Maybe a few glitches in the Ag Unit. Again notice the Brazil reference.


"UPDATE: BASF 2Q Net Profit Up 18.3%; Oil
By Gangolf Schrimpf
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

FRANKFURT -(Dow Jones)- BASF AG (BF) Wednesday showed a 18.3% rise in second
quarter net profit, driven once again mainly by its oil and gas division.
The world's largest chemicals company by sales said net profit came in at
EUR920 million from EUR778 million a year ago and above analysts' projection of
EUR849 million.
BASF's earnings were driven by its oil and gas segment, which reported a
second quarter EBIT before items of EUR868 million from EUR579 million a year
ago."
Pretty good so far, but read on"
"The agrochemicals and fine chemicals unit reported an EBIT before items
decline of 39% on the year and 18.3% on the first quarter. BASF cited a drop in
volumes by 6% and the depreciation of the Brazilian real as reasons.
BASF agrochemichals unit head Michael Heinz warned in an interview with Dow
Jones Newswires in June that the industry faced "a difficult year" and that it
would make it difficult to reach its full-year margin goal.
BASF's chemicals segment reported second quarter EBIT before items of EUR351
million, down 15% on the year, but up 10.7% on the first quarter.
BASF's performance products' EBIT before items was down 23% on the second
quarter of last year and down 15.7% on the first quarter. Here the company said
rising raw material costs negatively affected the unit"
Company website: http://www.basf.com
- By Gangolf Schrimpf, Dow Jones Newswires, + 49 69 29 725 500,
gangolf.schrimpf@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-02-06 0251ET
Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 51 AM EDT 08-02-06

Syngenta 1st half Profits Up 5.4%

A little more good news for Crop Protection Companies. I find it interesting that sales decline and profits rise. That points to successful restructuring. (American auto makers should talk to these guys). Also worth noting is the importance of Brazil.


Syngenta 1st Half Profit Up 5.4%; Maintains Outlook


By Stefanie Weitz
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

ZURICH -(Dow Jones)- Syngenta AG (SYT), the Swiss agrochemical company,
Wednesday said first-half net profit rose 5.4% despite a decline in sales, as
savings from a restructuring program offset higher costs for oil-related raw
material products.
Despite slower growth compared to the first six months last year, Syngenta
reiterated its long term outlook - contrary to some analyst expectations. It
targets double digit growth in earnings per share through 2008 - before
restructuring and impairment charges.
Syngenta, one of the largest makers of crop protection products and seeds
around the globe, said net profit attributable to shareholders increased in the
first six months to $961 million from $912 million in the same period a year
earlier, as difficult market conditions in Brazil and the U.S. hampered faster
growth.
Net income progression, which beat analysts' expectations, was also helped by
a lower tax bill in 2006.
Sales in the first half declined to $5.2 billion from $5.39 billion, hit by
lower sales at its seed business and an 11% decline in fungicide sales on lower
occurrence of soybean rust in the U.S.
The results are very strong despite sluggish market conditions in Europe and
North America, said Cheuvreux analyst Patrick Lambert, who rates the shares at
buy.
Syngenta's operations in Brazil - one of the key markets for crop protection
products worldwide -
were not as badly hit by the continuous strength of the
Brazilian real to the U.S. dollar than analysts expected. Despite the difficult
market conditions, the company was able to increase sales in the region by 6% to
$327 million from $307 million last year.
In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Chief Executive Michael Pragnell
said Syngenta has further gained market share in that region.
So Syngenta paints a different picture for that market, contrary to recent
comments from competitors Bayer AG's (BAY) and BASF AG's (BF) crop science
businesses, Cheuvreux' Lambert added.
Syngenta's Pragnell said "Continued costs discipline enabled us to offset the
impact of higher oil related costs."
Gross profit excluding restructuring and impairment costs declined 2.3% to
$2.81 billion from $2.87 billion a year ago, as the company generated savings of
$106 million in the first six month.
Pragnell added that he expects the company to generate another $100 million in
savings in the second half.
That target was welcomed by Bank Sarasin analyst Bernd Pomrehn, who expects
the impact from higher raw material costs to be lower in the second half, boding
well for margins.
Pomrehn, who expects the shares to open higher Wednesday, rates Syngenta at
buy with CHF205 price target.
Syngenta shares closed at CHF163 Tuesday, gaining only 1.8% year-to-date and
underperforming the broader Swiss Market Index.

Company Web Site: http://www.syngenta.com

-By Stefanie Weitz, Dow Jones Newswires; +41-43-443-8048;
stefanie.weitz@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-26-06 0250ET
Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 02 50 AM EDT 07-26-06

Bayer CropScienc To Raise R + D Budget


I own a few Bayer Shares and spotted this. I wonder what direction Bayer is headed. Rumour has it companies are again looking at different crop protection herbicides. The last few years GMO tech was everything

Bayer CropScience To Raise R+D Budget
FRANKFURT -(Dow Jones)- Bayer CropScience, a subsidiary of German chemicals
and pharmaceuticals company Bayer AG (BAY), Tuesday said it plans to increase
its budget for research and development to "some EUR750 million" by 2015.
Bayer said the R&D budget for 2005 was EUR664 million. speaking at a press
conference in Monheim Germany.
On Aug. 29, at the time of the company's first-half results, Bayer said it
expects sales from the crop science unit to decline in the full year.
The business achieved sales of EUR1.58 billion in the three months until the
end of June 2006, a 1.6% decline against the second quarter of last year.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
09-19-06 0416ET
Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 16 AM EDT 09-19-06

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Fall Weed Control

Fall is a great time to control perennial weeds. Monsanto has a good page on it. They are the devil, but nobody knows more about glyphosate. http://www.monsanto.ca/solutions/postharvest/index.shtml
(Next I learn how to put that window behind a word.)
Our custom machines do from 2500 to 5000 acres a year post harvest. My clients do 2000 or 3000 with their own rigs. I scout every field before without fail, and check about 2/3 post for control. We have great luck with it. Our rules are simple:

  1. A little frost is OK. - Stop and wait after -5 celcius or lower. Things might come back, but make sure
  2. Growing (regrowing) plants - Juice in the grasses, new tufts of growth on the thistle. Wait a week or more after harvest
  3. Clean plants - Wait for heavy dew or any rain to wash harvest dust. If you raise dust when you kick a clump of grass, hold off!
  4. We wait for sunlight and 10 celsius - We start at 10am and shut down at 5pm. (Monsanto says 8 celcius any time in the day. I'm more careful.)
  5. Dandelions and Canada Thistle - we use 1.25 litre/ac. origonal Roundup (sometimes with just a hint of 24-D, $.50/acre worth). We differ with recommendations on this.
  6. Quackgrass - We use 1 litre/ac. (Sod needs more and more next spring)
  7. Foxtail Barley - We use at least 1.25 litre/ac.. We use 10 gallons of water hoping to get down to growing points and into the thick tufts. We don't promise much. If you get 70% you are doing great
  8. We expect good control on quack grass (80 to 90%), 80% at best with Dandelion and Canada Thistle, 50 to 70% on Foxtail barley and sometimes nothing. and if you get Sow Thistle it's a bonus.

Last things:

  • Remember all the different formulations of glyphosate. I'm talking the old formula here
  • Careful mixing different companies products. We think we made water on 140 ac this year. Some are different salts.
  • We tried some Express/Roundup this year on Dandelions. It looks good 7 days in. We will see in spring.
  • Generic or brand name, Origonal or the new Tide, they are all basically the same. We find ourselves still with Monsanto (mostly) either generic or brand name. Monsanto has the most product knowledge and the best performance policy for us

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Crop Insurance Yield Data


This is a great site for the real deal on what varieties are really doing in your area or anywhere in Manitoba.Click on the title

Canola Commodity Chart


This looks like the bottom or floor or whatever traders call it for canola. My first picture. Click on the title for bullish supply/demand tables from AG. Canada

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Crops in the Bin edit

My math on canola from the Sept 18 post needs an update

  • Canola - Grower should/could/will ave $6.50 per bu.. A $.50 bump from previous post.
  • Canola - Math on canola should be - 28 bu X $6.50/bu = $182 per acre. A $15 margin, maybe a touch more?

Three reasons for the change

  1. I had lunch with one of my clients. I respect his marketing knowledge and his calls (strategy?) moving his grain. Steve thinks $6.50 is possible for an ave, maybe $7.00, for regular canola. He grew all Nexara or Intermountain. so it's harder for him to take advantage of the higher prices (My treat)
  2. With commodity prices dropping (gold, oil, copper, others) Our dollar will drop (has dropped). $1us = $1.1178 loonie today. That adds a few more pennies.
  3. Have you looked at a canola commondity chart lately. I've lost enough on the stock market to know a market bottom.

The Crops in the Bin 2

My straw poll continues with some crops Southwest Manitoba farms make a little more on (sometimes). Uh! and flax to:

  • FLAX - Got nailed with the heat. It goes in late (end of May this year) and suffered the heat badly. Yields were in the 15 bu to 35 plus bu per acre. Average might hit 20 bu. I scouted the 35 bu field , real beauty. (I'll post data on the field ?). Nobody I scout for had aphids at ecomonic thresholds. A few fields I didn't scout had aphid damage. Real bad math here - 19 bu X $6.00 = $114.00 add a few bucks for the straw if you can sell it. Still that is ZERO margin (minus $50/ac likely)

  • Low-Trans Fat Canola - Mostly Nexara Canola. Yields from 25 bu. to low 30 bu/acre. Ave less than 30 likely 28 bu/ac. (?). No reports of green count. Growers know better how to produce this canola and it was a good year for low green. Math includes that good premium - 28 bu X $7.50 = $210. Good margin over $40/acre. Nex 828 and Nex 830 both performed well. I think 830 might be a good option for next year with it's touted low green counts. We will see?

I will continue this next post. Gotta go


Monday, September 18, 2006

The Crops in the Bin

My farmers may actually make money this coming year. Yields and prices look good, a combo local agriculture hasn't seen since 2000 (?). A straw poll of the yield:

  • Wheat - The crop averaged in the 40 + bu/ac. range somewhere. Lots of 40 plus and many 50 bu/ac fields. Protein content is not as high as expected (12% plus on ave.) good, but not what we expected given the heat. Good quality. Do the math - 45 bu.X $.4.50 bu = $202.50 per acre. $20 to $50 per acre margin depending on costs
  • Canola - The other big crop in southwest Man. Yields will be lucky to average 30 bu/acre. The Invigor hybrids from Bayer CropScience yielded 10% more from my estimation and the Invigor 5020 [I market this one] had a 5% higher advantage (15% total).Now do the math - 28 bu X $6 bu. = $168 per acre (break even or make less than $10 margin) An extra couple of bu. or an extra $.50 per bu. means double your margin
  • Feed Barley - Big range in yield 50 to 90 bu/ac (90 bu. the extream) ave. likely 60 bu.. Not really a crop grown for cash in most cases, but lots grown for on farm feed supply. (Some grain farms supply hog barns or a local cattle farmer and try for cash) Yields varied depending on producer imput and seeding date. Math is not good - 60 bu X $1.75 bu. = $105 per acre. THAT'S $50 PER ACRE LOSS. I don't think it covers cash outlay. Even an excellent yield and premiun pricing - 90 bu X $1.85 = $166.50 acre - is still tight margin, $10 per acre. Good marketing and good production standards could make you a dollar here. Oh yes Conlin feed barley is the standout variety
  • Malt barley - 55 to 80 bu per acre. The quality of soil, the amount of rain and the variety accounted for differences. Legacy a six row malt grown on contract did well for my growers (75 bu/ac est.) Protein numbers are all high this year (12%) but sounds like it's being accepted. Bushel weights are high. Math goes like this - 75 bu X $2.50 = $187.50 per acre, a $10 to $20 acre margin. $.10 to $.15 less per bu. or 5 bu less would wipe out margin

Next post will be some special crop numbers. I want to look at fall weed control (Dandelions, Canada Thistle, and Quack grass) this week to

Sunday, September 17, 2006

First Posting

My first posting. I'm using this blog to learn about blogging. I want to see if I can get something relevent and usefull out to Farmers and the agricultural industry. I'm going to look at design, communication (in and out), content and the tech. behind blogs. I'll experiment with this site and go from here. (or stop completely?)