The Daily, Tuesday, October 31, 2006: Ag sector declining contribution to growth

The chart shows Agriculture's contribution to growth in decline. Energy is booming
The Daily, Tuesday, October 31, 2006. Gross domestic product by industry

Nexara canola vs regular canola; One Farmers Math

Now I have to warn you the information in this comparison is not very scientific. This is how a lot of farm, moreover business, decision are made.

I got a callback today from a producer regarding my question on Nexara canola vs Invigor canola He shared the following:

Field - Same half section. West 1/4 Invigor 5070, East 1/4 Nex 828
Seeding date - "Started one day finished the next" (don't you love that answer)
Fertilizer - Same (?)
Herbicides - :Liberty and Absolute/Odyssey (tankmixed)

Math;
Invigor - 39 bu/ac. X $6.50 per bu. = $253.50
Nexara - 33 bu/ac. X $7.50 per bu. =$247.50

$ Difference = $6.00 per acre for Invigor
Bushel Difference = 6 bu per acre or 18% (about what the trials indicate) for Invigor.

Comments: The prices were arrived at by:

• Nexara had been priced at $7.50 net/bu. for all the production. But not sold. Trucking ?
• Invigor, the producer had sold some (?) at $6.50 net/bu.

Niether field looked that good, but had yielded pretty well considering the conditions.

Green count was not a concern in either field

I asked the producer if he would grow Nexara again considering the results. His reply was yes, depending on the premium. It gave him some marketing alternatives and he had in the past seen a advantage the other way.

Market Talk: New Crop Canola Prices Too Low To Attract Acres: You just have to love talk of "buying" acres

Market Talk: New Crop Canola Prices Too Low To Attract Acres

I've heard most of the industry talking 13 million or 13.1 million acres of canola. Some doubt seems to be creeping in that price will have to increase to get that number.

Feedback from my producers is about the same. There is very little change in canola acres for our area. Rotation concerns and a lack to profitable alternatives limit our choices. But in "swing" areas maybe things could change.

I am getting some feedback about stretching rotations again. The last few years have seen canola- wheat- canola. (not the best practice) We could see more cereal going in eg. barley, oat, second crop wheat?

Anyway the post has some traders thoughts about "buying" acres. You really have to love that term.

Crop researchers making money moves for the future

The post projects what may be the right cropping strategy for the next two years. The writer is a bull on corn and wheat. But he has concerns about soybean and the effects ethanol by products will have on soy meal price
I found the comments interesting. I was doing a farm call today when the farmer mentioned he had priced canola a year ahead at $7.50 per bu. The producer is also very careful about his production plan for the next 2 years. Selection of the right crop or crop mix (he feels) could mean a lot of money made or lost.
click the linkCrop researchers making money moves for the future

FarmAssist - US Winter Wheat 90+% in

FarmAssist - Agronomic Resources - Alerts
Winter Wheat is mostly in in the States and looking pretty good. That's not real good for price but it's a long way to harvest.

Hedging Fuel Costs: You know this might work?

I sent ManFinacial an e-mail asking:

1. How large are fuel contracts ( they are really heating oil contracts)?
2. Are large prairie farms big enough to use them?

His reply

"Good Morning,

The New York Mercantile Exchange - NYMEX's #2 Fuel contracts are 42,000 US gallons = approximately 159,000 litres (the mini contract is 21,000 usg ). http://www.nymex.com/ho_fut_descri.aspx

Yes, we can fit a strategy to your volume and timing. For example, large volume users wanting to lock in a price could enter futures contracts, but a smaller dealer or farmer may be more comfortable capping with call options or options spreads.

Feel free to contact me at your convenience."

Stephen Depow
Specializing in Fuel Contracts
Man Financial Canada Co.

I'm going to follow up with Stephen with some fuel numbers from our customers, to see if he can make it work .

Nexara 830: A decent yield to go with the premium

I had one farm's Nexara 830 fields yield the highest of his canola.
I called the producer today for some details

Yield - 2 fields, 32 bu/ac and 34 bu/ac.,
Seed Date - May 18
Burn off - .6 L/ac. Transorb
Fertilizer - 85-28-0-12 side banded
Herbicide - Odyssey, June 20

Comments; The green count was estimated to be less than 2%. No fungicides or insecticides were applied. I forgot to ask seeding rate, swathing date and harvest date. Swath and harvest dates are important with Nexera because of the green count. We tell our growers "sow Nexara first, combine Nexara last"

I met with Louis Dreyfus today about Nexara contracts. They have been pretty happy with green count in Nexara this year. They have really noticed difference with the Nex 828 having lower counts (less than 2%). Having said than Dreyfus is seeing good counts from 830 (around 2% only limited amounts higher)

Fund Trading in Futures Chart: A HUGE Increase

The posted chart is two years old. Investment has gone up from this level. These fund have a large impact on commodities (grains/oilseeds included), both good and bad.

Managing Fuel Costs: Cost control for trucking, and maybe farming?

Managing Fuel Costs

This post from ManFinancial suggests using futures to smooth out fuel price fluctuation. Hedging your cost side. Likely not a option for smaller operations. That would depend on the size of the contracts. It could work for farms, again depending on the size of the contract. I e-mailed the company to find out

The Daily, Thursday, October 26, 2006. Hog inventories

The Daily, Thursday, October 26, 2006. Hog inventories
Dropping hog inventories could spell trouble down the road for feed prices (way down the road). I recall a post stating the hog industry would have two bad year adjusting to the shift in prices due to bio-fuel production eg mainly higher feed cost.

Hopefully low hog prices will fix low hog prices.

Hruska family pulls in harvest

Hruska family pulls in harvest
Illinois family

AgWeb: Farm Equipment Industry Looking at Slowdown

AgWeb - Your Spot for Futures Trading, Commodities Info, Ag News, Successful Farming Tips & More

This info. on Farm equipment sales slowing has been out for a while with different news sources reporting. My "takeaway points" are;

• Equipment manufacturer have had a few good years. Pent up demand and some ag. sectors doing well kept the tractor makers growing sales.
• Ag equipment makers and dealers did a good job adjusting to changing farm needs eg, Larger equipment, dealer consolidation and financial programs. That has helped the industry and bodes well for the future
• The statement that the Canadian side of the border may have slower sales. Are we doing that much worse? Is the reason ethanol production, better subsidies or our week dollar?
• There is no mention of poor margins, just slower sales or sales growth. It sounds like the industry thinks it can adjust or weather something slowing down. Are they thinking cycle or short term adjustment as opposed to real bad times for them?

AgWeb - What's up for next week's markets

AgWeb - Your Spot for Futures Trading, Commodities Info, Ag News, Successful Farming Tips & More
Check the post. Monday will be USDA report on winter wheat condition, and month end means fund trading.

Global Warming: I've got a question about this chart

Now I know technology is good, and heaven knows I wonder about global, sorry Global Warming, but we can track CO2 concentrations from 400 years ago?
Oh yeah, isn't water vapor the biggest culprit in glob... sorry Global Warming?
That's two questions isn't it?
Darn now that's three.

Farmers poised to grow state's economy: Say What!! Farming as the Economic Engine of the South?

Farmers poised to grow state's economy I've never heard of the Palmetto Institute. They do sound kind of optimistic about the farms in the state

Free 2007 Commodity Trading Guide: I ordered it, may interest a hedging farmer

Free 2007 Commodity Trading Guide

Nothing like a freebie

AWB Limited - AWB and the Single Desk

AWB Limited - AWB and the Single Desk
Australian Wheat Board info. page. This sounds a bit like what is happening with our wheat board.

Dekalb; The winged cob logo

Sorry I have gone a little nuts here. But is that not one of the COOLEST logo's you have seen. These guys started in Dekalb County.

Baldur Stefansson - A father of canola

Baldur Stefansson - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Keith Downey - A father of canola

Keith Downey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Top Five Canola's of All Time; and I don't sell 'em all

Australian canola field top

Canadian field bottom

I thought of this while doing the Dekalb article, besides it is canola marketing season for me. It doesn't hurt to promote a bit.

I looked for breakthrough canola that lead the others. My criteria is as follows and not in order or importance:

• Yield advances - Something that bumped the yield up to over 25 bu or over 30 and now over 40
• Yield advantage - Canolas that stayed ahead in yield no matter what the conditions. Dry, wet, hot or perfect. North, South, East or West
• Great agronomic package - Easy to swath. Early season vigor, you know the big cabbage leaves, nice and green, quick out of the ground. Or doesn't shell easy or flowers for a long time, or nice big black seed. Or a canola that does all this
• Longevity - The canola's that kept it up over a few years. (This by the way looks like a thing of the past, they put'em out too fast) Something farmers become loyal to because of it's performance

The TOP FIVE GREATEST CANOLA"S OF ALL TIME:

NUMBER FIVE: HYOLA 401. The grandaddy of hybirds. 401 was a dream to cut and it yielded over 30 bu per acre, a jump in yield for our part of the country. Big, black seeds just poured from this compact plant. It was the first canola that farmers said "where did the yield come from" . Grain buyers loved that seed and farmers took pride in delivering a load. But Hyola's longevity sets it apart it was "the" hybrid for 10 years.

NUMBER FOUR: 34-55 The first "good" Roundup Ready. I got serious about canola with 34-55. Another compact canola, 34-55 stood well and is still the easiest canola to cut. It set a standard by bringing RR yields up to the levels on conventional canola. As a bonus it produced in the wet, the dry, the hot and everywhere in between.

NUMBER THREE: 45H21 A pox on the competition. The first and still the standard for Roundup Ready Hybrids. H21 has the whole agronomic package, yield, standablity, and an R rating for Blackleg. Proven has put out newer products, but no Roundup Ready has yielded with 45H21 yet.

NUMBER TWO: 46A76 Another pox on the competition. A case could be made for 46A76 being the best canola ever. My first 50 bu canola field was 76. A Solid well branched plant with a sturdy stem, this Clearfield yielded in every kind of weather. At one point a third of the acres in my market area was 46A76. Acres of this canola were "brown bagged" across the prairies, leading Monsanto to use there TUA business model to protect there canola system.

NUMBER ONE: Invigor 2573 Nothing yields like INVIGOR. This dark green plant with it's aggressive cabbage leaves is a beautiful crop to look at. 2573 was the Invigor that started farmers saying (with pride) "I grow Invigors". It's not the easiest to swath, it can be large and leaning, but this was the breakthrough in yield, 40 bu became possible. With the right conditions more than 40 bu became possible. Bayer's growing market share started here and continues

The late cuts.

Weststar - The first canola most people grew and the standard for a long time for trial checks

Elbony - An excellent standing canola, that grew very tall. Elbony yielded well, flowered forever and had an R rating for blackleg

Invigor 5020 - The new standard for yield. 5020 is the Invigor you can cut. It missed the cut because it needs to lead the pack for 2 more years

Farmcentre.com - Farming as Fun

Farmcentre.com - Farm management articles
A "think piece" from an farmers market owner. He thinks we should have more fun farming and that we don't any more. I don't agree with everything he says. It is a good reminder about not taking things to serious.

I do think farmers have a lot of fun. I know I've had a lot of fun with them (read that drinking beer etc) The get togethers and visiting has disappeared, everyone is working (wives) .I have noticed farmers get away on trips and get involved with the kids a lot more. That is one advantage of successful farming, the ability to "get away" and "spent time with the kids" .Take advantage of that if you can. And if someone drops in for a coffee or something else, do that to

Louis Dreyfus: Oats

Virden Yesss! You gotta love $2.40 spot price for a bu of oats. Bullish oats report, but if you have been watching you know this already.

Bye the By YEA CARDS

Dekalb Canola: Yield Data, among other things, "NEW" 71-45RR canola being one other thing

Monsanto Performance - Yield Data
I spent yesterday afternoon among my peers attending the Dekalb Canola 2007 "rollout" (industry jargon) A "rollout" is the process of introducing a "new" product line to your customers and distributors. I'm actually a fan (and marketer) of Dekalb Canola. I've sold 1000's of bags of 34-55 and still consider it the best open-pollinated roundup ready on the market.

Dekalb's "NEW" 71-45RR looked good in 2006 trials:

• Ave yield 40.89 bu/ac
• Ave yield advantage 1.7 bu/ac.
• Ave. $$ advantage $11.53/ac (Monsanto loves this one for some reason?)
• 132 sites
• They went against everyone H21,H24,H25 and all Invigors
  
  Anyway Dekalb (Monsanto) has been trying to find the breakthrough product in the Hybrid market. Their feature canola will be 71-45 RR (click the link for Delkalb's trials) It does look good, I had a 1/4 with one of my best growers and the 71-45 yielded (30 bu plus) and performed well.
  
  Dekalb's braintrust know the future (really the NOW) is Hybrid canola. Manitoba has been Hybrid for a while, Sask and Alberta are growing or maybe are already grown the hybrid market. If you want to grow your share of the canola market you have to go hybrid.

Darn gotta go. My sons off to play hockey I will continue this evening. Click the Link. and Check out Dekalb's line. I do like the site and the data, easy and quick to use.

Winter Wheat on Summerfallow:

This is not an uncommon site, winter wheat planted into summerfallow. I found this field near Reston. It will likely be alright. You can see the black dirt.

The problem is that it may not trap snow. Snow is the insulation to ensure the wheat survives the cold and overwinters. That's the theory. It will be tested in the field at some point. Actually this field is testing the theory.

Our Winter Wheat Field: Oct 24 three leaf

I had a dig around in the winter wheat field I'm monitoring .
You can see root development is pretty good. We use to want a rosette or crown to ensure the crop would survive the winter. Now two or three leaves will do. I have seen some small winter wheat survive. Plants that just germinated or one leaf poking out of the ground seem to overwinter. I don't know if that is the best way to do it, but they survived. I received most of my early lessons on winter wheat with Kestral, since then the varieties have changed a lot in growth habits ( or maybe we know more?)


These were taken Oct 24 the look to have 3 well developed leaves.

There looks to be cows to eat that expensive Barley/Corn

Just a slight dip in cattle inventory

Soil Moisture Maps

LOTS OF DRY SHOWING HERE, except Europe of course

Canola (RS, WCE): Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Nov., 2006

Canola (RS, WCE): Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Nov., 2006

Canola prices still look bullish going by this analysis

It's Your Business: SHOW ME THE MONEY

It's Your Business
Don Bousquet checks in

6 Strikes against better marketing: Read This Article

6 Strikes against better marketing
With grain prices going up this article hit home with me. My only comment is, if we understand the emotions behind something maybe we can do the right thing even if it feels like the wrong think. (humm, does that make any sense?) It may after you read this marketing article from University of Minnesota

Farms.com - A press release on Gov. Program for ethanol co-ops

Farms.com - agriculture information, markets, auctions and commentary
A little shot of money (one million) for Co-op ethanol projects. This will serve two purposes:

1. Fund feasibility studies for Bio-fuel projects
2. Allow a government to say they are funding Bio-fuel projects. (Yes I know I'm jaded)

Farms.com: We Know Bio Fuel Won't be a Rosy Picture for Everyone, Purdue writer's comments

Farms.com - agriculture information, markets, auctions and commentary
A balanced article from someone who sounds knowledgable at the University of Purdue. His spin is the hog industry will have 2 years of hard times adjusting to ethanol production and it's effect on corn price.

Winter Wheat Condition: Not looking good in the USA

This is an old chart. I will try and find something a little more current. But this does not paint a pretty picture of the condition of American winter wheat.

To Do List For The Coming Week

My blog plan for the coming week will be coming from work in the field, not the web (as much).My ideas are;

• I heard about a 45 bu the acre Invigor 5020 field. I'll call the producer (Brent) and get the info.
• While loading fertilizer this week one producer told me about using HEADLINE on flax. The test strips went 10 bu more. I'll get a handle on that and post it
• The new years first of crop protection company programmnig hit my E-mail this week. (BASF) I will share
• More on the winter wheat field I'm following
• I'll follow up more of our post harvest applications to see how things are going
• I have a meeting with Monsanto to look at this years programing, and product launch. I'll report any thing good
• I've got to revise my math on production. With prices going up, more margin should result
• I'll report on a 30 bu plus Nexara canola field
• I'll look at the data on 80 bu Legacy malt barley

Man I've some big ideas. But in the interest of putting all my card on the table I thought I'd post this.

Crop Yield

Crop Yield
The data in this a link on yield increases in the last 30 years only goes to 2001. It does illustrate how far farm production has advanced. This blows away any talk that things were dpone better in the old days . One question I have. What the heck is going on with fruit yields. I read 97% of 30 years ago in North America.

Gotta go again the 13 year old just called for a ride.

Farm Business Communications:Rotating Fungicides, let's start before there's trouble

Farm Business Communications
I bloged this from Country Guide. I'm getting more concerned about our fungicide programs. There are decent "strobs" (HEADLINE) and "double mod of action" (STRATEGO) in the market. We are going to watch this in the coming season. I lean on TILT a lot as my fungicide of choice. I think I will start using a wider range of products for rotation.

Gotta go! I'm cutting meat at the our churches fall supper.

Strong price in feed barley and feed wheat; I kind of missed this

Last night we had a great steak and poker night for our INVIGOR canola customers. Of course I talked a lot of "farming" with the "guys" Feed barley prices came up. I was amazed (gobsmaked to use a phrase from a "Brit") to hear farmers talking $2.30 to $2.60 per bu. I'll have to revise my crop budgets. Checking the Winnipeg nearbys you see the spike in barley and a smaller one in feed wheat.

Life is good down on the farm!

By the way GO CARDS.

CWB Variety Survey Results: The way things are going for the Wheat Board you better look while you can.

Above picture is wheat drawings from wikipedia, below the link to the CWB survey
http://www.cwb.ca/en/growing/variety_survey/results.jsp
I found the survey interesting when I looked a month (?) ago. I noted the increases in a few types of wheat and the different wheats provinces like

AACL:Both investor and Farm sides of Co-Production

AACL
Just a little better link to Australian Agricultural Contract LTD

Grain Co-Production: A good idea from "downunder"

Farmers Info - AACL
Australian farms have a new option for funding production, Grain Co-Production. An firm in Australia has created an investment that allows investors to put money right in the production game, complete with all the risks and rewards. And it looks like a win win situation so far.


The basic idea with Australian Agricultural Contract LTD (AACL) is Grain Co-Production (GCP). Grain Co-Production involves:

• A pool of investment money
• AACL pays farms to grow wheat
• AACL markets the production
• AACL assume a lot of risk (thereby reducing the farms risk)
• AACL has made 10% for investors
• AACL funds based on average production
• AACL pays 90% of production above average back to the farm

This looks to have advantages over loans or using credit services. GPC's would not totally replace credit. Credit Unions, Banks, FCC, MACC and various ag. credit services will always play important roles in farming. But GPC's looks like a real good idea. Kind of a hybrid insurance, loan and production contract roled into one.

There has to be some strings attached: I'm sure AACL won't just take any farm or any field from any farm, there will be strings attached. As an example they won't fund more than 50% of wheat production from a single farm.

I was at the in-laws when I read about Australian Agricultural Contract LTD. In the Country Guide. I Googled it as soon as I got home.

Check the link and spread the word. Grain Co-Production could be a good option in Canada.

I have to go catch the last inning (Mets vs Cards)

• 
  

Spearman Texas 1935; You've heard of the "dirty 30's"

Description: Dust storm approaching Spearman, Texas April 14, 1935
Credit: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

CBOT - CME & CBOT to Merge, Creating $25 Bil. Premier Global Derivatives Exchange

CBOT - CME & CBOT to Merge, Creating $25 Bil. Premier Global Derivatives Exchange
This creates a huge trading entity. The post is kind of a dry essay. I'm guessing merger will have little effect on grain trades? It is huge news however. I threw in the offical picture to spice up my blog.

Two Reasons Why Things Could Boom For Agriculture

Reason ONE: Grain prices have to go up. The Chart at right is historic commodity prices. That is a bottom if I ever saw one. And off a 25 year bear market, as long as I have been in this business. Prices have to be going up and a lot of factors are pointing that way.

Reason TWO: I can fill a bar full of farmers. For the last five years it has gotten harder to get farmers to come to promotional events. We use to fill a room or a bus (or a bar) easy. It got so bad last fall I had to cancel a couple of events just for lack of interest. I have 75 Farmers confirmed for an Invigor Canola event

FLAX: Back to $8 a bushel

Posted is a Louis Dreyfus marketing article on Flax. While they don't see this years crop paying much, the writer points to prices for 2007 production regaining strength. The posted chart shows flax supply at historic highs the last two years. The post paints a picture of increasing use, dropping production and tightening supply. That's a formula for good prices.
Virden is the link to the article.

Snooping on grain buyer websites
I like to browse (ok snoop) grain buyer websites, just to see what's going on. (They are my competitors and I might gain a little inside info.). I find nice current news and articles on the Louis Dreyfus site.

Sunflowers: marketing insight from Louis Dreyfus

Virden
I don't have many farmers growing "sunny's", but this is a good overview of that market. I like the ideas and insights the writer puts into the marketing "stuff" posted

Ethanol Plant Stats: Man! they use a lot of corn

A few numbers on the ethanol industry in the USA:

• 101 plants in operation, making 4.5 billion gallons of ethanol (yes billion)
• An additional 44 are under construction and 7 are expanding, with an anticipated 3 billion gallons of production
• The existing plants used 550 million bushel of corn this past year.That accounted for 1/2 the decrease in American corn stocks year over year
• It's estimated this consumption added $0.25 a bushel to the price of corn. Yes a quarter

Fund Rally: A few "quotes' from a commodtiy report

Two lines from a CBOT daily market report, speak to the possible good things that can happen when funds buy:

"Wheat rallied on strong fund buying"

"The fund buying triggered commision house stops"

Both lines are from today's CBOT market summary

Winter Wheat Field: Seeding rate and fertilizer plan

A Quick word on the winter wheat field I'm watching:

• The producer seeded at 150 lbs of seed per acre. He mentioned he now goes for 40 plants per sq/yd, and 150 lbs just happened to be the rate for that population. I've heard that line of thinking more in the last few years.
• Light fertilizer. He used a full mico-nutrient package that has low rates of N,P,K,S. but all the micos
• He used no seed treatment. The idea being increase seeding rates to ensure populations and use disease free seed.
• The grower plans to split the Nitrogen. 1/2 this fall, (maybe on top of the first snow?) and half late next spring. Likely 100 lbs per acre combined

Commodity Funds:Why is everyone so intersted in Wheat, Canola and Corn

I'm sure you have heard a grain futures analyst say "the funds are buying" as a reason grain prices are moving.
I was curious and did some research on commodity funds. There are a pile of them:
Mutual funds: One mutual fund info. page had listings for 47 different commodity mutuals. A lot have appeared in the last 2 yrs. In the above chart, Blue = PIMCO Commodity Real Return Fund and Red = Oppenheimer Real Asset Fund
Pension funds; These massive pools of money hold commodity futures.
Managed money commodity pools: Basically a bunch of people with "real" money give it to a manager to trade, well not give really.
Off shore investors: I think off-shore money would be considered in managed pools. I gave them there own catagory because a good chunk of off shore money trades.
Exchange traded products:Added to the horde of cash are various Trakrs or ETFs. These trade on the exchanges as a basket of commodities. They have to hold positions to reflect that basket, so they buy futures contracts. Some products trade on commodity exchanges. So far two ETFs trade on US stock exchanges:

• Powershares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
• iShares GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust
  

All this money is traded in different ways. That breaks down into two basic strategies;


Passive; These funds buy and hold contracts (or positions based on some type of derivative). What they hold is based on a index or basket of commodities that is predetermined. There are three main indexes to follow. There are smaller ones and for sure ones I don't know about. The main three indexes are:

1. Jim Rogers Internataional Commodities Index
2. Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
3. Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index

These types of funds balance and rebalance based on the basket or index they follow. Some futures contracts are monthly (oil for example) some are different periods (most grains). Most of these funds hold long positions (make money if commodities go up and are based on the idea that's the way the market will move.)

Active: Managers of active funds increase or decrease positions. Active managers may also go short (hold positions based on a commodity going down in price) or long

So what is the net effect of all this: It should be good for the market. More trading, more cash, more liquidity, those are good things. More trading stops one or two large traders moving a market to there advantage. More cash in a market speaks for itself, and more liquidity reduces risk (you can get in and out when you want). Negative effects could come from a lot of these funds getting in or out of something and creating volitile price moves.

I haven't mentioned "hedging" . Hedgers are part of the commodity market. Producers and manufactors have always tried to ensure price buying futures. But there is new money from the bio-fuel industry in the markets. Hedge funds are a different story, but they do trade in commodity markets both short and long.

Winter Wheat Field: oct 10/2006

I'm following the progress of this winter wheat field. You can see the emergence looks good. It looks to be two leaf. I'll post more data when I talk to the producer.

It's on Nexera canola stubble with a burnoff of .8 L/ac Transorb to control Quack and Canada Thistle. You can see the cot. stage canola's. Many canola leaves showed signs of frost damage

Most winter wheat in the area goes on Canola stubble. Some farmers had been going into pea stubble, but pea production has dropped off. We also have a few farmers growing on sumerfallow. I don't reccommend that and neither does crop insurance. They seem to get away with decent production .

One problem with on canola stubble can be previous years swath tracks . It often show up after you apply herbicide. Plants will appear stunted and yellow. I've heard a variety of reasons why it happens. Spreading the straw and breaking up the mulch (residue) under the swath with a harrow pass is most producers solution.

A last note about the producer, No two last notes. He is zero till. And he is one of the better winter wheat growers in the area

Things Farners Say:

I've spent a bit of time working in our store and getting to talk to a few farm customers. Producers are happy with canola prices. Two growers sold canola at $6.50 and $6.55 per bu.(one was a truckload he had no place to bin, the other a bit to cover month end bills) Their marketing reminded me of the marketing strategy of a farming friend:

• "I like to watch the market. I only sell canola at $9.00 a bushel or at $5.00 a bushel."

FT.com / MARKETS / Commodities - Grain stockpiles at lowest for 25 years

FT.com / MARKETS / Commodities - Grain stockpiles at lowest for 25 years
Financial Times story about 25 yr lows in grain stocks. It's interesting to see a European (British in this case) report on grain markets. A couple of things I took away from the article:

• The Ukraine halted grain exports. I read in the Globe and Mail today that Argentina did the same. I don't know what that means? Are they worried about having enough?
• The general tone from the quoted trader about concerns for next years crop. Long term agricultural bull markets are almost unheard of. Supply adjusts, that means farmers grow more.

Fertilizer Price $ = Natural Gas Price $:Natural Gas (NG, NYMEX): Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Nov., 2006

Natural Gas (NG, NYMEX): Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Nov., 2006
I've heard natural gas price is a large part of the cost of making nitrogen fertilizer. Click the link
I've also been quoted $345 per tonne for 46-0-0 and the quoter (?) said that may be high.

Good Fall Dandelion Control: Express SG and Transorb HC

The dandelion (the wilted brown one) in the picture was sprayed Sept. 27. We used .33L/ac. Transorb HC tankmixed with the regular rate (? gram/ac>) of Express SG. Cost per acre ($5.65) I took the picture Oct. 10
Note the 2 leaf wheat and the seedling dandelion that emerged since spraying
The next picture is close up of the same plant.

This Canadian Thistle root is brown, not the healthy white you should see when you slice them.. Not the best picture

These two pictures are Canadian Thistle, the same day, same field. (The field had a few thistles.). If we get control it will be a huge bonus. I didn't expect the effects we have. I won't be sure how good this is till next spring.

This is not frost damage. The wheat in the previous pictures is a couple of feet away. Note the brown and wilted growing point on the thistle. I'm not sure that's a good thing. Long term control of perrenials comes from control of roots.

WCE CANOLA OUTLOOK: Market to be Volatile

WCE CANOLA OUTLOOK: Market to be Volatile
Ok a little more pessimistic view here.
Just one point I have to make. No two

1. The world crushed the heck out of a lot of canola this year. Plus Canadian crush capacity is going to rise. So I think this guys point about there being a lot of canola doesn't account for that
2. $30/barrel oil. Come on.

It's Your Business:Don Bousquet report paints a nice picture

It's Your Business
MARKETS ARE LOOKING GOOD. MAN SOMETHING HAS TO GO WRONG HERE. THERE'S A GOOD CROP IN THE BIN AND A CHANCE TO MAKE A DECENT PRICE. I GUESS IT CAN BE SAID IT COSTS WAY TO MUCH TO GROW.

Bousquet is always pretty optomistic anyway.

Sept. Crop Report

This is kind of heavy reading. But if you do want to have a look click the title.

The report does indicate a pretty good crop in the west. Manitoba has a good crop, canola really came through.

Another Agricultural Success story

You really have to be impressed with the remergence of Afgan farmers.

Good Grain Marketing Information:CBOT Newletter

I've subscribed to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)Newsletter. I've found it interesting so far. It's free,comes daily by e-mail and has a good shot of headlines and commentary.Click the posted signup link: www.cbot.com/commoditynews

Soil Productivity Workshop in Justice MB

Soil Productivity Workshop
What: A field workshop for producers and soil specialists.
Where: 1 mile south of Justice on PR. 468, SW 6-12-17W
When: Oct. 18 th , 10 am - Noon

TOPICS

• Nutrient Management
• Precision Farming Concepts
• Soil Management
• Soil Testing
• Carbon Credits
• Risk Assessments

CONTACT: James Hood ph. 1-204-726-6295, email: jhood@gov.mb.ca

The World Wants Canada's Canola

I had to post something off the net on marketing!
The posted article is from Informa Ecomonics. Three "take away" points:

1. The chart showing lots of "other" countries buying our canola in 2006.
2. That huge carry in of canola, 3.5 million tonnes, has been crushed down. Low price fixes low price?
3. Bio-Diesel could increase demand for canola oil. Not because it's used for energy, but because canola could be choice for edible oil.

I'd consider this a fairly positive view on canola going forward medium term. (2 or 3 yrs?).

Winnipeg Commodity Exchange :Daily Record in canola Futures

Winnipeg Commodity Exchange -
In a previous post I noted that CBOT set a trading record. Looks the same on our side of the border.

Fall CanadaThistle Control:Treated and Untreated with Roundup

Canada Thistle sprayed Sept 20 with .77L/ac Transorb HC. All these pictures are the same field/same day. (The Thistle is the brown wilted thing in the middle of the pic, I'm going to have to work on the photos)
The Canada Thistle beside my hat has not been sprayed. You can see the green regrowth tufts growing out of the cut Thistle
The middle Canada Thistle was sprayed with .77 litre/ac. Transorb HC on Sept. 20. (It's the brown wilted thing in the middle, The green plants are Borage and Wheat seedlings that emerged in the 20 days since we sprayed)We applied the herbicide at 5 gal/ac. The temp. was 13C and we applied in the afternoon.
The Canada Thistle in the Middle of this picture has had no herbicide applied, it's in the same field. The photo was taken the same day. The farmer only had us apply to a heavy infestation on 1/2 the field.

Chicago Board of Trade:Sets New Volume Record In Agricultural Complex

Chicago Board of Trade:
According to this almost a million contracts processed today.Nearly 60,000 more than a record set February 2005.

Martin Entz on Winter Wheat: I wish I'd reviewed this in August

University of Manitoba: Agricultural & Food Sciences - Farmers Independent Weekly September 5, 2002
A straight forward production article from Martin Entz. Other than the main point of seeding at the right time ( Close to Aug. 31), three ideas stuck me:
1. Dry conditions should not stop you from seeding. I was very skeptical of seeding this fall. Now we have good moisture and the few fields that did go in the ground look OK
2. Don't seed to deep. This is one I harp on my farmers about. Shallow seeding is good and Entz focuses on it's importance with winter wheat
3. You can spray winter annuals late into October. I made that reccomedation to one grower already. I know it is a pain when the water is frozen in the tank, but it cleans up the winter annuals (and dandelions)

Record Low US Oats Output Bolsters Canadian Oat Export Ideas

Record Low US Oats Output Bolsters Canadian Oat Export Ideas
Interesting information on Oats. A lot of this I've already posted. One passage that caught my eye is mention that producers are not delivering, because they see the price increasing.

Fall or Spirng? Fertilizer for Winter Wheat

The link in the title is from Westco fertilizer.
Only a few fields of winter wheat were seeded in our area due to dry condtions, but thiscaught my eye.
The page points to yield advantages for fall applied N. I haven't seen this in the field, but I haven't tested it either.
What I have seen is split applications resulting in better yield.(certainly not tested again)
One advantage to putting all or some N down in fall is lower priced N.
Historically fertilizer prices are 10% lower in fall. That can vary and it can invert, but the pattern has been the same in the 25 years I've been in the business.

Statistics Canada Crop Production Summary

Statistics Canada Crop Production Summary
Everything looks to be within the Trade estimates. Canola is the only one at the top of the range. Oats appears to be the only crop above last years production. Remember an earlier post stating a 16% drop in US oats however

Despite falling prices, ethanol still profitable

Despite falling prices, ethanol still profitable
A Lincoln, Nebraska news clip indicating $1.65 per gallon ethanol still has margin for processors.

The One(s) That Got Away: Yorkton Canola Crushing Capital of Canada.

Louis Dreyfus Canada Ltd.
The linked story stings a bit. It refers to the 2008 opening of Dreyfus's crush plant in Yorkton. I read the Sask. Gov. news release on the advantages the James Richardson Internation (JRI) plant will have to the area. Darn it, one or both crushers would have looked good in Brandon (or anywhere in Western Manitoba). It is good Husky is expanding in their ethanol plant. (Makes me feel a little better, takes some of the sting away)

More Oat Bull: Louis Dreyfus Canada Ltd.

Louis Dreyfus Canada Ltd.
I'm really pushing Louis Dreyfus today. The general tone of this linked page is bullish for oats both short term and mid term. Again production risk is to produce quality. It's interesting to note a Dec date for Stats Canada data to give direction to the market

Positive Canary Seed Update; Louis Dreyfus Canada Ltd.

Louis Dreyfus Canada Ltd.
I'm looking for a canary seed price chart for a cycle or upswing in price. No luck so far, but I found the linked article on a Louis Dreyfus site. I have at least one producer with a bin of canary seed. The article seems bullish for 2007 price too?

Grain Processing in Western Canada: Expansion and Opportunity for Farmers

Market Analysis Division : Publications: Bi-weekly Bulletin
Grain/Oilseed processing (with the exception of malting Barley) is expanding on the Prairies and flat or declining in the East. Check the % change in oilseed crush and oat processing on the chart. In the linked article take note of the mention of Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and the role they are playing. Overall the stats and the spin in the article are positive for Western Canadian producers. One negative is Canada lagging behind the world in processing of Bio-fuels. That's a shame with our natural advantages in the market. It's still early in the game and hopefully we will not lose out on opportunities.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Enjoy the Thanksgiving break. I'm off to get a little surgery done tomorrow, I hope I'm not to sore to overeat.

Last Field to Spray: I hope

We (or Jason) sprayed our last field of the season today.(I hope). We put anti-freeze in the lines and will move the unit home or into storage in the next week or so. Darcy had already winterized the lines last Friday, when we got the call to do this last one. We drained the $100 worth of RV antifreeze out of the rig and away we when (Anything to keep the customer happy) After a $875 repair job on my truck. and three days of scrambling we finished this afternoon. I don't think this one was a money maker.

bio-logical futures III:Saskatoon Conference on Bio-Fuels

biological futures
This is a pretty complete page behind the link. There's a flood of bio-fuel information on the web. I have two, no three, questions on bio-fuel:

1. How will farmers (my farmers) really make money out of this?
2. How can the company I work for (a farm supply) make money out of this?
3. Is this for real? Is Bio-Fuel the BIG paradigm shift that will enrich agriculture?

It's going to be a interesting ride.

Q and A on REDCOAT: a fertilizer seed coat for canola

The copied Q and A is straight from Brett-Young Seeds. I want to look at the product in field this year. I'm interested, but I've seen "on seed" treatments that don't give a big advantage. Any way I'll take a shot, you have to try new "stuff". I've ordered 20 bags of Redcoat on Brett-Young's new 4414 Hybrid Roundup Ready Canola.

Redcoat Q & A

Q: What is Redcoat canola?

A: Redcoat is a canola coating that consists of precision placement of insecticide/fungicide seed treatment layer followed by a 20% nutrient package (primarily phosphate) capped by a water soluble polymer cap on each seed.

Q: What are the benefits to canola growers?

A: The three main benefits are: better stand establishment, higher seedling survivability rate and a more consistent seed treatment application. Early uptake of phosphate is critical to early plant growth. Redcoat includes a small amount of phosphate on each seed in a highly available form which gives each seedling the phosphate needed to give it that “pop up” effect. There are many other conditions and situations where redcoat can benefit growers; early seeding into cool soils, direct seeding, broadcast seeding, heavy clay soils any time phosphate is placed greater than 1 inch from the seed. Redcoat canola seed is the safest way of handling treated seed.

Q: What does Redcoat cost?

A: BrettYoung offers our customers great value as Redcoat is priced the same as regular treated seed.

Q: How long has phosphate coating been sold?

A: Phosphate coated seed has been sold by BrettYoung in western Canada for over 20 years. The coating system has been continually updated and processes refined over that time. Seed coating technology is continually advancing and BrettYoung will continue to lead by perfecting processes and improving coating technology.

Q: Does Redcoat bulk up the seed?

A: Yes it does, the coating material bulks up the seed 20%. Because the density of the seed is much higher than the coating it works out to about 14% of seed enhancement in each bag.

Q: Should seeding rates be adjusted when using Redcoat?

A: Generally if you follow standard calibrating and plant population targets no other changes should be required. When seeding any canola seed you should take into count 1000 kernel weight and use the following formula; lbs/acre = 9.6 X plants/ft² X 1000 kernel weight in grams divided by % survival rate. When using this formula you can increase your survivability rate by 10% if you are using Redcoat. The target of plants per square foot and survivability rate are the 2 elements of risk that must be decided on by each individual grower. Redcoat tends to flow faster than regular treated seed so be sure to calibrate your planter.

Q: Why is Redcoat not offered on all of your varieties?

A: The Redcoat process is a precise application of coating material and seed treatment. It takes extra time and cost compared to regular treated canola seed. We offer Redcoat only on our top canola varieties.

Oat Marketing: Q and A with CanOat

I e-mailed Dennis Galbraith from CanOat with some questions on marketing oats . His response again makes me think oat prices have some legs to them if seeding intentions are down again in spring.

Fieldscout - "Is contracting milling oats a option for 2007?"

Dennis - "Historically Manitoba growers have forward contracted a lot of oats prior to seeding. The past few years weather conditions and resulting price rise after harvest has lead to more growers to not forward contract. At some point a bumper harvest will mean forward contracts will pay better but when that happens is any bodies guess."

Dennis added in the e-mail that CanOat will likely have contracts out in December.

Tomatoes from the Farm

One of the bonuses working with farmers is free garden stuff. I just had a huge box of tomatoes delivered right to my door. I've also recieved deer sausage, cucumbers and corn along with a variety of other tasty items.

Yes life is good.

Still in the Field after -4C

Our hi-boy sprayed regrowth Canada Thistle today and will go tomorrow. With the warm weather and sun I feel very confident of control.

It was hard getting the rig in the field. I blew the alternator on my truck delivering water to the rogator, and we had to scramble to find trucks to deliver herbicide. Darc (The operator) had to drive 10 miles round trip to fill with water. All the hassle made things harder than they should have been

We got the field started in spite of trouble and will finish tomorrow. As an added bonus my truck is already fixed. Those two things make me feel better. I am really lucky to work with excellent operators. Many places have people come and go, but the two men I work with have been with me for 7 and 8 years. It makes it much easier to get "it" done when "it" goes bad.

Express on Fall Dandelions

I rechecked the dandelions we sprayed with Express and .33 L Transorb. The early effects look good. I will post pictures and the data on the application. I'll continue to monitor the field. If we get good control the ecomonics are good. $3/ac for the Express and $2.65/ac. for the Transorb. If we get 80% + control on a consistant basis that becomes the best dandelion weapon I've seen. I find most mixes a little inconsistant, likely due to seed, but still inconsistant.

Turf, Forage and Legume Seed Market Update: July 26, 2006

Turf, Forage and Legume Seed Market Update: July 26, 2006
These are older prices on this link, but the market for grass seed is strong. I have a couple of growers having good luck with golf course grass seed (Fescues or ryegrass). The grasses are a pain to get rid of, but very lucrative when you get some production. Enjoy I will try and find some recent price.

AMAZING AGRICULTURE:Yuanyang Terraced Field -Yunnan Tour

Yuanyang Terraced Field photography tour - Honghe destination guide-Yunnan Tour
I spotted a photo of Chinese terraced fields in a ag publication.( I can't remember where). Only 10% of China's land can be used for agriculture. Terraces were one of the ways they maxed out production.More pictures on the link