Stripe Rust Coming In 2007(?)

I took these last year in a field of Mackenzie wheat. We did not use a fungicide for control, the infestation was not serious enough. Click on them for a better look

I found stripe rust in wheat fields in my area last year. Well over 2000 acres worth. It appeared along with leaf rust, but appeared to move slower than leaf rust. I saw it on a few different varieties of hard wheat. I can't say all the varieties off the top of my head, but some were rated well for leaf rust resistance. The stripe rust moved slowly in these cases. It was hardly a scientific survey, but I am sure it was stripe rust. I sent pics for conformation.




Saskatoon Homepage.ca - Its All About Your Community. - Sask Farmers Should Check Wheat Crops for Stripe Rust in 2007

Canola Acres May Not Hit Predictions

FarmAssist - Agronomic Resources - Alerts

I've heard this recently about canola acres (one predicted at 15 million acres) not hitting the highs predicted(?)

EU Closer To Taking GM Canola: This is good news, a new market.

FarmAssist - Agronomic Resources - Alerts

This hopefully will come to be. Canadian GM canola going straight to the European markets.

Farm Credit Canada - AgriSuccess Express / AgriSuccès Express - March 23, 2007

Farm Credit Canada - AgriSuccess Express / AgriSuccès Express - March 23, 2007

Some info. on the biofuel parts of the budget. I receive the FCC email newletter AgriSuccess Express. I like the articles

ENJOY

Quotes About BASF/Monsanto Project

The following are some quotes from a Dow Jones article by Laura Mandaro I found on my RBC Investment page. I will try and keep every thing in context.

"Monsanto, BASF In $1.5 Bln Union To Create GMO Seeds For Biofuels"


"SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- U.S. seed company Monsanto Co. and German
chemical giant BASF Ag on Wednesday announced a $1.5 billion partnership to
develop more genetically modified crops to meet growing demand for
vegetable-based fuels."


""This is the Google dedicated to genetics," said BASF Chairman Jurgen
Hambrecht in a conference call to discuss the venture." Bold statement, at least we know Mr. Jurgen has a healthy ego


"As farmers seek richer harvests to meet expected demand for corn ethanol,
Monsanto anticipates farmers will expand their purchases of these
higher-yielding crop seeds. Monsanto has forecast 35% of U.S. corn seed sales
sold under its national brands could be in triple stack this year, up from about
20% last year. " Very aggressive projections. I understand Monsanto is overtaking Dupont/Pioneer as the main corn seed company in the states, so they have some basis for this

"On Wednesday, the two companies positioned their venture as a way to solve the
industrialized nations' growing desire to replace fossil fuels with ethanol and
other vegetable fuels made from the same crops now devoted to food." SPIN with an nod to the current trends

""The real dilemma will be how do you grow more with less," said Monsanto CEO
Hugh Grant."

"The companies said recent environmental mandates in the United States and
Europe to replace fossil fuels with vegetable oils will only up the ante on
farmers to increase crop production." Also mentioned were the 5% to 10% levels that governments are hoping to achieve


"Both companies are betting that competing demand for crops from food
manufacturers and energy companies will push farmers toward their genetically
altered seeds."

""The question farmers have to ask themselves is can they remain competitive
long term if they don't have access to the best tools," said Peter Oakley, a
member of BASF's board of directors." Spin to make the producer and the politicians think.

What About Field Peas:

I'm getting some producer feed back about field peas. Two of my medium sized producers have called pricing Tag-Team. And a mega-farm called to double there granular Tag-Team order to cover a full section. This activity should put our producers/customers field pea numbers at around 1500 ac. (the low end of normal)

Random thoughts on field peas (and crop plans in general):

• No nitrogen costs, this is kind of a no brainer, but at $600 per tonne for urea producers are thinking twice about what they grow
• Peas are great in a rotation, they aren't canola and next year they give back a lot of nitrogen. With growers in our area tightening rotations to much land goes canola-cereal-canola. Lots of producers mention this, but feel kind of tied into pushing rotations
• Peas aren't flax. Some concern about rotation. It is really hard to make any money on flax till they are worth $8 bu. Ever then flax is hard on the land and leaves nasty straw to deal with
• You can hit a "home run" with field peas. I've had growers reach in the low 70 bu with peas. If you can get over $4.00 bu that is good money
• Peas move quick off the combine. Usually there is min. storage time and even direct delivers of production. I know one of my producers just loads up semi after semi and they go direct to the buyer (and hopefully a check at the end of the month)
• Chemical rotations are good. With mostly (well really all of them) BASF herbicides growers have a good tool box to control weeds. The only things that can give you problems are Canada thistle and Kochia. You have lots of Group two products and a "den" group 1 for changing up your herbicide rotations

http://www.statpub.com/stat/prices/spotbid.html A link to recent cash prices for peas

http://www.saskpulse.com/media/pdfs/How_To_Sell_Your_Pulses.pdf A marketing presentation from this years Pulse Days. Pretty good from my quick skim

Enjoy. Depending on what kind of price you can get field peas may be a good fit for 2007

The bus station just called I have freight. Gotta go!

Australia's Nufarm Ltd forecasts FY headline profit of 160 mln aud after weak H1 - Forbes.com

Australia's Nufarm Ltd forecasts FY headline profit of 160 mln aud after weak H1 - Forbes.com

Nufarm is trying to get a toe hold in Western Canada. These guys are big in Australia and it sounds like they have a presence in South America. So far all I've seen locally has been some generics and a buy of Assert from BASF.

Brazil Shuts Down Cargill's Amazon Port - Forbes.com

Brazil Shuts Down Cargill's Amazon Port - Forbes.com

This post from Forbes start as reporting on a shutdown due to not meeting regulations about an environmental assessment. It kind of goes off on a tangent at the end about deforestation of the rain forest.

I would bet it is challenging running a business in the Amazon or Central Europe or even China (China is likely more stable, but just handling the culture shock would be enough)

Will Barley Test Historic Highs(?)

I was reading the post on hedging barley for fun and profit. I thought about the statement that barley is reaching historic highs. It is right that there is no reason a price can't exceed historic highs. It also a fact that we are truly in a new age when it comes to agricultural products. Still it is prudent to note that, yes, barley is approaching historic high of $202 a ton.

USDA-SJ: Weekly National Grain Market Review

USDA-SJ: Weekly National Grain Market Review

Barley Hedging

http://www.wce.ca/WebContent.aspx?Web_Content_Id=551

A paper on how and why to use futures to price barley

Alberta Agriculture Turfgrass and Forage Seed Markets

Alberta Agriculture Turfgrass and Forage Seed Markets

Interview with David Wong giving current prices for forage seed. $0.31 per lb for tall fescue (?). at 800 to 1000 lb per acre, not bad.

Perennial Ryegrass Seed Production in Western Canada

Perennial Ryegrass Seed Production in Western Canada

More opportunity growing ryegrass. Grass seed production is a pain in the a@#, but it can pay.

Fertilizer imputs are very high 120 lbs N and lots of P and K, every year. Plus you have to poor a pile of glyphosate on the field for 2 or 3 years after ( 1.5 litre/ac. every year) to get it controled. But once you establish a stand you get 2 or 3 year of good production. You can do this on some marginal land as an added bonus. And the gross return can be in the $250 per acre range.

Tall Fescue Seed Production in Western Canada

Tall Fescue Seed Production in Western Canada

I have one grower with a lot of tall fescue. He is a least 400 ac. any perticular year and gets good returns on saline land.

Growing grass seed for turf production or forages does have it's challanges, but I've seen excellent returns in the $250 gross range with reduced imputs. Or if you hit things with yield and price you can get a lot higher. Plus these yields have been achieved on saline land that will not come anywhere close to good production.

Aussie Feb Oilseed Crop Report: Pretty darn gloomy and dry

http://www.australianoilseeds.com/__data/assets/pdf_file/2572/AOF_Crop_Report_Feb_07.pdf

Aussie crop report from FEB 2007. It sounds real dry

Time to call it a night. My daughter has a house full of preteen girls for a sleepover. It does not sound like they are even thinking about sleeping. And whatever they are thinking about it involves a lot of giggling, thumping and talking

nite.

Promising Economic Outlook for Agricultural Sector Continues in 2007

Promising Economic Outlook for Agricultural Sector Continues in 2007

Amber Waves article on how great things look for grain producers on the American side of the border. Not so good for the livestock people 19% drop in hog producers income. OUCH

The chart shows farm income %% increase. As it says in the caption large percent increase

South East Research Farm

This research farm is close to our retail, just across the Sask border and south a bit,

I'm going to look at there work and WADO's (Westman Agricultural Diversification Organization) in Melita this year. What I've seen this winter on the net looks interesting.

Farmer driven research is really important and it is great to see local organizations taking leading roles. Support from the Feds and the province is evident, both money and extension dept. time/focus

South East Research Farm

There mission statement

Our Mission
"To provide quality applied research and demonstrations that are producer-driven with results extending to and beyond the farm gate to improve agricultural sustainability and encourage environmental stewardship."

The Perils Of Running A Family Business - Forbes.com

The Perils Of Running A Family Business - Forbes.com

An article on running a family business. I notice some of the right things that my customers are doing with there family farm businesses. ( and unfortunately some of the wrong)

There has been a lot of this type of information in the farm media for the last 5 yrs or so. You may have noticed it yourself? It's interesting to see it in the larger business world perspective.

Ethanol's Growing List of Enemies: Anti-ethanol lobbys check in

Ethanol's Growing List of Enemies

Livestock producers, various "green" guys and girls, hybrid car manufacturers and wind/sun energy people are gearing up the lobby machines.
I'm sure gangs of lobbyist, media consultants and the legal professionals are foaming at the mouth with the prospect of "ethanol vs. anti-ethanol" groups fighting for the hearts and minds of middle America.

The post is mainly reporting on spin from either camp. And lots of names are used if you are starting a list for and against to keep score.

AgReport Farm Market News: Why Farmers Lose in Markets

AgReport Farm Market News

I don't agree with the basic premise in this post. That being producers make "blind" decisions about what to grow based on what the price is today not what it will be in 6 months. There is a lot of forward pricing, contracting and shop around marketing going on today with producers.

Pesticide Prince - Forbes.com: You gotta read this

Pesticide Prince - Forbes.com

This is a beauty of a story. If you are in this industry you have to know about the new generic herbicides. No matter if you sell them or use them or are worried about them wrecking your business this story will interest you.

Enjoy

Monsanto, BASF Join Forces: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

Monsanto, BASF Join Forces: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

I think I heard about this one before. These two are giants in the industry, BASF is huge.

Fertilizer Makers Reap Corn-Fed Profits: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

Fertilizer Makers Reap Corn-Fed Profits: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

This post spells out exactly what makes a demand driven market and why fertilizer prices are high.

Canadian biofuels could stall on clawback - ADM | Reuters.com

Canadian biofuels could stall on clawback - ADM Reuters.com

Archer Daniels Midland weights in against a subsidy clawback.

I have to admit I really want to see subsidies for boidiesel plants that use canola as raw material. I like the fact farmers will make more money and that this is a "green" fuel. I want the west (my community) to prosper. I want a cleaner enviroment for myself and more really for my kids. Bio diesel could help with that environment. They may even get jobs someday working for a bio-diesel making firm.

But the big reason I like bio diesel is "I GET TO SELL FARMERS MORE CANOLA SEED AT HIGHER PRICES" So when ADM puts a statement like this out you have to wonder what else are they going to say.

Fertilizer Prices Will Stay High All Spring

I've had a few producers ask if fertilizer prices will drop before spring. An e-mail from our supplier says no chance. Maybe softer after the season is over but still over $500 per tonne for 46-0-0 in June. These are serious numbers in a demand driven market.

As I've said before demand driven markets are strong for high prices. Right now demand is driving barley and canola price and there will be no let up in strong pricing for a while yet. $8 canola and $3.25 barley is here till end of crop year. Don't expect fertilizer markets to soften.

Sorry about that. Have a nice weekend.

Do You Want A Free Seed Treater

If you want a free (well kind of free) seed treater, most crop protection companies have a program. Ask your retailer, or as is the case more and more, ask your company rep. Programs are formal advertised or informal at the call of the rep or retail.

My BASF rep. sent me a e-mail this morning. Here's their/her program (informal?):

• Buy 6 cases of Charter ($447 cs Suggested Retail) or 10 cases Gemini ($266.60 cs Suggested Retail)
• Get a free Classic Seed Treater (they were Classics last year)
• Classic Seed Treater retail at $249.00 each
• That much Charter will treat 1368 bu of wheat or 780 ac
• That much Gemini will treat1240 bu of wheat or 725 ac (not bad)
• And BASF programing will likely get you a dollar an acre off your seed treatment anyway

If you need a seed treater this isn't a bad deal. Talk to your local supplier or contact your rep (BASF customer service 1-877-371-2273)

One more item if you don't use BASF likely the other guys Raxil from Bayer or Dividend from Syngenta will have some kind of program (formal or informal) to get you a break on seed treating equipment. I will have a look at what else I've been sent now that I think of it.

Have a nice weekend.

I just remembered Bayer has helped some of our larger outfits with equipment on a case by case. You have to do a nice piece of business with them and need something special for help. If you are switching to there product and have an idea of something you want you may get some help(?)

Mid season Zone Nexara 845 CL Yield: For some reason a higher ave yield(?)

Just got an e-mail from head office. Attached were the info. sheets on Nex 840 and 845 (registration pending) I had the Long season yield datayesterday today I've got mid season yield data. It is interesting to note the higher yield in this trial.

Farm Product Price Index: Highlights: Increase in income

Farm Product Price Index: Highlights

Click the chart for a better look. Price index takes a good jump. Plus note that livestock and crop indexes are converging. Livestock is dropping to come to the rising crop index but maybe they can both stay reasonable (?). Feed cost of course really bite into profits. But I talked to two cow/calf guys this week. Both had sold barley at $3.10 bu. They had few complaint, except wanting a touch more for there calves

AUSTRALIAN NEWSPAPER HIGHLIGHTS - MARCH 23, 2007

AUSTRALIAN NEWSPAPER HIGHLIGHTS - MARCH 23, 2007

I just love to post Australian items:

On the ag side note two things:

• Grain producers out $500 million because of "unsold" grain (?)
• Water restriction in parts of the country

Market Talk: Crush Margins Improve

Market Talk: Crush Margins Improve

Big blog day for me. Canola is being crushed at record pace.

And price is holding. Please note "premiums" being offered reference. Maybe get on the phone for an extra $.15 to $.20, it could be out there(?)

March PROs

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/3/90967733.html

You have likely seen these or will see these. CWB PRO's


Time to head home.

Happy Birthday to me. I will not say how old. My wife and kids gave me 7 presents this morning. A six pack of Miller draft and a coffee card from COOP. Then they all when for a ski. (snowboard in my daughter case).

But it's out for supper tonight and maybe a good bottle of Aussie shiraz

Good Int. Weather Site: CWB? who da thunk it?

This is pretty good international weather information and maps without paying for it. Brown by the way is bad (about 50% rain) Kind of like we had last year. Any way good site and it's free.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/weather/maps/#

Picking Good Ag Exporting Countries: Ok cheap but good wine

http://lifestyle.sympatico.msn.ca/B/Home/ContentPosting_CL.aspx?isfa=1&newsitemid=2990d7c9-d42c-42b8-a394-221b06896109&feedname=MEGHAN_MCCALLUM&show=False&number=0&showbyline=True&subtitle=&detect=&abc=abc

Not really ag related. Well value added ag related maybe. Another thing I love is good red wine with good food. Ok! ok! I love good food, maybe food. Come to think of it just good red wine, without food, but both together I also love, and apart, but more together, really either way.

Anyway Aussie shiraz is really good with beef or any good meal. And I am serious about that

Brand/Generic Chart For Insecticides and Fungicides

Another chart stole from the Co-op Crop Protection Guide. I modified the generic charts a bit to fit and to break them down to different pesticides. Lots of alternatives here. Losban and Lagon generics have been around for a while. Tilt generics like Pivot and Bumper have appeared in the last 2 or 3 years. I think Syngenta's (Tilt's manufacturer) past programing with healthy rebates for Tilt was aimed to counter the appearance on the market of Pivot and Bumper (?). This year Syngenta has just cut price.

Two Takes On Food Prices and Ethanol

http://www.dtnethanolcenter.com/index.cfm?show=10&mid=56&pid=17

http://blogs.dtn.com/roller/grainmarkets/entry/200703221

Post 1 is a take on high food prices resulting from ethanol prices

Post 2 is a counter take on that opinion

Comment On New Bio-Fuel Money In The Fed Budget

http://www.topmanagers.ca/BlogSubDetail.aspx?DocId=371&CurYear=2007

First I've seen on biofuel in the budget. This article has a positive spin to it. I think bio-diesel is where Canada can make some progress. Ethanol will be produced, but the US has to much of a head start and can produce a way more corn.

Broadleaf Brand vs Genric Names

Another good chart out of the Co-op Crop Protection guide. This one is broadleaf herbicide alternatives. IPCO is looking pretty strong(?)


Our parent company told us last year that generic pesticides will reduce the dollars spent for Crop Protection products by 20% in the next 2 or 3 years. That means producers will spent 20% less. Now that is a good thing for producers. It's likely not such a good thing for farm supplies. Margins (profit) are shrinking in the business, generics may just take another chunk out of that margin.
You can see the evidence of shrinking margins. There are a lot less independent dealers around, the ones that are left are multi-branch outfits. Consolidation of the market with AU, Sask Pool and JRI is another symptom of tight margin. (lower grain handles because of drought are part of that) A few years ago crop supply sided of AU and Sask Pool were very profitable. The last while things have been much tighter.

New Nexara Canola: Nex 845 CL

I just got off the phone with my Nexara contractor and my Dow AgroSciences rep.. There's a new higher yielding Nexara, NEX 845 CL on the market. Limited supply this year, but if it looks good more in 2008.

Nothing really earth shattering from the yield charts, except the early planting yield from Carman. If you look at Nex 845 across from Carman early planting the yield jumps 15 bu over late planting (?)

I've come across varieties that will yield to outstanding levels with long seasons. The trick is to do it on a consistent basis. That gets a lot harder if you plant lots of acres or the season does not agree with you. Having said that, I always maintain that Nexara should not be your whole canola crop. A 1/2 section or one field put in early should do it for Nexara. You have to baby sit this stuff and you can't plant late (after the 20th of May stay away). Marketing is kind of different too. We are again having some issues with contractors not moving the goods for 6 months or more. That can get hard on the cash flow.

Put this into your calculations for Nexara when you look at it. It is a nice premium ($1/bu this year) and it can be worth the effort, but know what you are getting into.

Early Corn Planting Numbers Continue To Be Up

http://blogs.dtn.com/roller/grainmarkets/entry/200703202

DTN blog post citing high corn planting numbers.

Chart For Glyphosate Comparison

I found this chart in the Co-op Crop Protection Guide. If you are like me, sometimes it's hard to keep all the "roundups" straight. This chart is pretty simple, but contains most of what you need to know.

Just one note. Be careful mixing different glyphosates. Last year we had a problem in a field with two brands antagonizing each other. The result was the tank not working.

Spike In Profits For Virtual Ethanol Plant

http://www.dtnethanolcenter.com/index.cfm?show=10&mid=56&pid=6

Switchgrass vs. Corn for Ethanol Production.

http://blogs.dtn.com/roller/grainmarkets/entry/200703191

A DTN blog entry about switchgrass vs. corn as a ethanol source. Switchgrass comes out poorly. I would like to see the cited budget before I made up my mind

MORE GRAIN IN THE FIELDS: Farmers predict a favorable growing season, despitethe weather

MORE GRAIN IN THE FIELDS: Farmers predict a favorable growing season, despitethe weather

Good weather and planting news. Rain never hurts

Page From 2006 Census: Rural and small town population

2006 Census: Portrait of the Canadian Population in 2006

Small town and rural are holding there own. Interesting to note growth is in close to large urban areas (jobs of course). I'm happy to see Steinbach and Winkler make the growth list.

CBOT - Commentaries: Wheat prices rising on supply concerns

CBOT - Commentaries

I monitor CBOT ( Chicago Board of Trade) newsletters. I've been hearing this support for wheat from CBOT and other places

On Thursday night I sat with a ex-farmer now in the financial business. He really make a case for wheat both on the feed side and for quality (if CWB can capture it)

Big Hockey Game Tommorrow

My son has a big game tommorrow. The rubber match in a three game series for the league championship.

GO OILERS

George Morris Paper On The Canadian Dollar

http://www.georgemorris.org/aspx/Public/Utils/DbFileViewerPopup.aspx?FileID=264

The post speaks to increasing productivy by increasing capital investment in technology. Also mentioned is steamlining our regulatory systems.

The paper makes the point (and it is a valid point) that a low dollar just hides weak points in our economy. With our natural resourses we should be working on becoming more productive, not making our exports attractive lowering the dollar. Kind of like being the dollar store of countries.

All the point made in the article are valid. But, goverment ( in places other than Canada) have used the low currency strategy for the last 20 years. It is an easy way to stimulate export and I don't think it's going away any time soon.

How to get rich in farming | Markets | Commodities | Canadian Business Online

How to get rich in farming Markets Commodities Canadian Business Online

The headline says it all.

Enjoy

Cowboy junkies? | Markets | Commodities | Canadian Business Online

Poppy farming in Alberta?. This Canadian Business post may just be on to something. A lot of products, codeine for example, are made from the poppy According to article the market domestically could be 100 million, not bad niche. I posted to get a little bit of the word out, maybe something can happen.

Cowboy junkies? Markets Commodities Canadian Business Online

US Farm Markets: It's not all ethanol, it's exports to

Farms.com Swine Exchange, News, Auctions, and Commentary

Link is a US take on Agricultural exports to NAFTA countries and other growth areas for the American producer. The world wide increase in the middle class will create big demand for good food.

Ag Canada Expects Jump In 2007 Canola/Barley Seeded Area

Ag Canada Expects Jump In 2007 Canola/Barley Seeded Area

In the states now every body is coming up with projections on seeded acres. I think just to have a chance to say "I was right". I mean, I heard 91 million and 87 million and somewhere in between for corn acres in the US. Really it's going to be a lot more than before, we get it. Same with canola in Canada, we know it will be a lot, but how much. The acres in canola will have more of an effect, because it is a smaller market.

Key points:

• Lots of barley. I'm hearing $3.50 for malt barley for a floor price. If the market goes up you get more, but you can't get less than $3.50. So people are going to grow that
• Wheat acres are down. There may be some upside to wheat. CWB may capture more value for quality wheat. Feed wheat may see increased demand because of high feed costs

Teachers Pension Plan: So why do a bunch of "old" Ontario teachers invest in the west

OTPP - Teachers' invests $266 million in Richardson Agricore, welcomes grain producers' input

They put up 1/4 billion dollars for the Richardson Agricore deal and that's small change for this 100 billion dollar (yes with a B) investment juggernaut. You will be amazed at the depth and width of there investment portfolio.

I've read a few articles about the power shift in Canada from the east to the west. Political and economic forces are creating a new Canadian order. Growing energy and agricultural sectors are eclipsing an ailing manufacturing sector (auto for instance). Everyone wants to move to BC. And everyone else is looking for a job in Alberta. I think this major investment by a major eastern investment fund to create "the" biggest grain trader in Canada really speaks to the shift.

The link is to OTPP website and directly to a press release on "the deal"

Livestock and Meat Trade: A Look at the Effects of BSE - AmberWaves - February 2007

Livestock and Meat Trade: A Look at the Effects of BSE - AmberWaves - February 2007

The post is straight reporting on BSE and it's effects on beef imports/exports in the US. The Bar chart is a stunning visual of the effect.

Virtual Ethanol Plant:

The chart and post are DTN's virtual ethanol plant. If you look at the margin (profit), it still comes in less than $.50 per gallon. Government support level are at $.50 per gallon or close

http://www.dtnethanolcenter.com/index.cfm?show=10&mid=38

Green Horn Destruction Of A Tractor

http://www.progressivefarmer.com/farmer/landowner/article/0,24672,1593610,00.html

Progressive Farmer does read like a primer for transplanted city folk. This article is kind of funny.

Farm Security: Keeping the homestead and your stuff safe: Real "Homeland Security"

http://www.progressivefarmer.com/farmer/landowner/article/0,24672,1096945,00.html

The post is about increased theft on the farm. The perception is that this is an increasing problem in rural areas. Our retail now has a 6 foot locked fence around the entire yard, something that 10 yrs ago would be unheard of. I often hear stories of theft. We are not as bad as nearer to urban centre but still it's a concern.

I'm curious about stats on this kind of crime. Certainly the police (RCMP) presence is not as great as a few years ago. At one time every town had one or two RCMP's, now most are patrolled by police based in secondary service centres (larger towns). When I was a boy 40 some years ago my home town even had an actual town policeman along with RCMP's.

Browse the article. The remote area security seem a little bit of overkill, but some of the ideas and information could help in making things more secure.

Progressive Farmer ( the articles source) seems aimed at small holdings? I don't know? I'm going to have a look at it a bit more.

Ethanol (AC, CBOT): Weekly Price Chart

Ethanol (AC, CBOT): Weekly Price Chart

Ethanol is having a mini rally in price. Technical analysis support a continued price increase. It looks a little choppy to me.

Dollar charts (?)

Aussie and Canadian dolllar charts

FOREX - AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR WEAKER AT NOON - MARCH 14, 2007

FOREX - AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR WEAKER AT NOON - MARCH 14, 2007

Just had to post this on the 13th.

Weaker Aussie dollar means there exports are cheaper to buy. That's bad for us

Market News: TradeSignals U.S. Grain Futures Morning Commentary - Real Time & Delayed Quotes, Charts, News and Data for Futures, Stocks, Commodities and Indexes - TradeSignals

Market News: TradeSignals U.S. Grain Futures Morning Commentary - Real Time & Delayed Quotes, Charts, News and Data for Futures, Stocks, Commodities and Indexes - TradeSignals

Bearish to Mixed indicators, signals and trends on the Technical side for AG commodities. This could be why some funds are taking profits on long positions.

Remember this is looks a lot like a weather market.

Audio Commentary On US Crop Report

http://www.mgex.com/audio/mgex-3-9-07.mp3

Stockpickr! Ethanol Stocks Portfolio

Stockpickr! Ethanol Stocks Portfolio

Ethanol companies and some suppliers and "hangers on".

I notice some small cap prices in here.

Stockpickr! Grain Market Stocks Portfolio

Stockpickr! Grain Market Stocks Portfolio

A portfolio of Grain handlers and related companies

Stockpickr! Agriculture & Fertilizer Index Portfolio

Stockpickr! Agriculture & Fertilizer Index Portfolio

Fertilizer companies are booming

Stockpickr! Your Source for Stock Ideas: Low P/E AG Stocks

Stockpickr! Your Source for Stock Ideas

Low forward p/e aggie stocks. And starring my favorite Agricultural Commodity basket ETF (DBA)

Bloomberg.com: Commodities: and a 1

Bloomberg.com: Commodities

Wheat bear

Bloomberg.com: Commodities: and a 2

Bloomberg.com: Commodities

Palm oil yield boom?

Bloomberg.com: Commodities: and a 3

Bloomberg.com: Commodities

Aggressive corn planting bears on the market

Don Bousquet Checks In With Joy For Us All

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/7/90310373.html

Another optimistic report from Don Bousquet. You have to love this guy.

Pea Market Report: More pulse market really

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/4/9/90520794.html

Nothing earth shattering in this report. Pea may be a little shorter due to demand, but looks stable.

Maybe A Few Peas

I had a large producer in today booking treatments for peas. Just a 1/2 section, ( small for them) , but enough to get me looking at the pulse markets. I always like peas in a rotation. Pulses make for good rotations away from cereals and oilseeds. They add nitrogen to the soil and break disease cycles ( somewhat). In our area pulse crops allow more use of group 2 wild oat herbicides another nice break in herbicide rotations.

Early Corn Planting Up: Likely too early to effect anything

http://blogs.dtn.com/roller/grainmarkets/entry/200703131

A lot of industry will be looking at early indicators of corn planting. Here's the first corn planting report I've seen.

The whys of why this is being watched are:

1. High corn acres mean high nitrogen demand and higher fertilizer prices
2. High corn acres mean more corn ( more supply). That could result in lower price across the board.

I've said it's early and the post stated that too. Early market reports point to short term selling. Remember it's early.

South America Crop Watch 2007

South America Crop Watch 2007

I've heard South America is looking at a good crop. The post is AgricultureOnline's web site "South American Crop Watch" section.

I always get the feeling the Yanks are a little nervous about what is going on in the Mato Grosso.

There are issues that have to be overcome in South America. Things like bad roads and weather issues will hold back agriculture in Brazil and Argentina. Argentina also has to deal with corrupt gov. When you think about it those problems sound a lot like what prairie producers have to deal with.

I'm kidding our roads are pretty good.

South America Crop Watch map

South America Crop Watch map

The Prairie's Bootlegger Past

I was checking out things to do on our weekend at Temple Gardens and came across the Moose Jaw tunnels. Moose Jaw was one of Al Capone's outposts in his bootlegging operations in the 20's

It reminded me of family stories and rural (not urban) legends about booze smuggling on the prairies. Both my Mom and my mother in law have stories of big black Cadillac's full of Americans stopping to see friends from the old days. In Moms case "Old Man" Morris, her childhood neighbour near Elgin school, was visited by these friends in the late 30's and 40's. My mother in law's boss , a store owner in Alexander, got a couple of visits in the 50's from some American friend's from the "war" . She said they looked like gangsters.

Two more, around here they talk about Fleming bar being a stop off point for bootleggers on the way from Moose Jaw to Chicago. It is a big two story building and nice big bar in a tiny town(?) Likely it was bigger town in the past, but? Last one, in our town there's a tunnel from the train station, to the old hotel, to a local building (now a jeweller) down town. The tunnel crosses under two streets and is big enough to stand in. Now I know they used this type of thing for utilities and such but this is kind of odd. The local legend is the booze was dropped off by train, stored in the hotel, and shipped from the downtown building. And I've heard it in reverse.

Kind of cool don't you think. Likely a mix of fact and fiction, but still an interesting part of prairie culture
http://www.tunnelsofmoosejaw.com/default.asp The tunnel link. Enjoy!

Remember When The Headlines Were All About GMO

Just got into the store. I was doing the e-mail and spotted this on the DTN blog. It's kind of funny the article talks about the recent problems BASF if having with some GMO rice in some of there rice seed. The writer has an angle about GMO's being back in the news after a winter of ethanol, ethanol, ethanol ... . The article of course ends with reference to more ethanol
http://blogs.dtn.com/roller/grainmarkets/entry/200703062

Temple Gardens Mineral Spa Resort Hotel Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan Canada

Temple Gardens Mineral Spa Resort Hotel Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan Canada

Barb and I are headed to Temple Garden in April. If you don't know about this place, I'm told you are really missing out. This will be our first visit. Both my 20 something rogator operators have been and think it is "great". The male modius operandi is to find a sports bar, while the "mrs" gets a facial or whatever. I don't know if I will get away with that one, but it does look like a nice place.

Take your wallet

Moisture Conditions In Europe :Look Good

On-Farm Testing in Manitoba - Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Initiatives

On-Farm Testing in Manitoba - Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Initiatives

As a sales agronomist I often get into Demo plots to show farmers something new or something new to them. Demo and plots done by farm supplies and companies are not always real solid data. A lot of things are not controlled . All you are really doing is giving people a "look". I mean there is yield data and observations, but to extract valid information that separates the "other" variability from the effects of tested practices you need more

"More" can generally be broken down into 3 components:

1. Replication - The differences caused by your tested practice, will become evident if you make repeated comparisons. In other word replication helps you determine if differences between plots are due to tested practices or natural variation. 4 replications gives the best chance of success.


2. Randomize - Mix 'em up. Where practices are placed must be fair or "unbiased". Many locations consciously or unconsciously give one or the other an advantage. Something as simple as a coin flip makes things random


3. Statistical Analysis - You have to " do the math" to detect if your tested practices give "significant" differences. In other words if the A canola yield only 1 bu. more over B canola , does it mean anything? The formulas for this give me a headache just thinking about them. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) or Least Significant Difference (LSD) or Probability Level ( no initials for some strange reason)

With today's gps and mapping equipment and yield monitors this kind of test can be done. You do need planning and patience, but trials can be planted and harvested in very controlled conditions with present on farm technology. Plus a great deal of information can be collected while doing the operations. Now all the producer has to do is add some planning and math to the results. Finding the time will be a lot harder.

The post is a MAFRI factsheet I've found helpful

I've got to say when companies do "real" work in plots they do a good solid job. But remember if you are looking at a "demo" or a real test.

Can You Make Money On Flax:

Flax price on the upswing. But is it enough
Same as above. But supply is dropping and that can be good for price

http://www.agr.gc.ca/mad-dam/index_e.php?s1=pubs&s2=bi&s3=php&page=bulletin_20_03_2007-02-23&PHPSESSID=b1543ff1c38bb5a67fac59bfbeb4914a

Never is a long time. I have hardly anyone putting in flax in 2007. Producers are sick of making nothing for it and getting terrible yields. But never is a long time. Maybe in a few years things could pick up. The post tells of price increases, lower supply and higher consumption, but it also points to nobody wanting to process flax. Crush margins are better in the biofuel industry than in the flax food crush. I mean what would you do? It doesn't sound like you're growing flax, you can't make money growing flax. Not many are going to process it (crush) if they can't profit.

Take a few minutes to read the post. There may be a light at the end of the flax tunnel, but it is a dim one.

US Planting Intentions Projection: Private Company Checks In

http://blogs.dtn.com/roller/grainmarkets/entry/200703021

Last post from DTN. (Maybe) Allendale a private outfit checks in with there projections for US planting. Higher corn and lower soybean than the USDA. This looks good for canola price (?). I'm guessing the Allendale survey is a cross section on there customers (?). Maybe larger farms or more successful farms in there survey than the more general USDA (?).

Lots of question marks in the projection game.

DTN News Blurb; Ag Committee Chair Checks In On Ethanol "Backlash"

"House Ag Committee Chairman Collin Peterson said that the U.S. has been subsidizing consumers with under-priced food and added that the growing demand for corn by the U.S. ethanol industry will help raise prices where they belong." DTN Morning Snapshot

Neeley's Ethanol Plant Back In Black: DTN's virtual plant increases profit

http://www.dtnethanolcenter.com/index.cfm?show=10&mid=55&pid=23

I monitor the DTN markets newsletter. One of the links is to a "virtual" ethanol plant. Profit seems to have jumped the last while with lower natural gas price and higher revenue from both ethanol and dried mash (the protein byproduct).

Urban Editorial On Biofuels: Can you say backlash

EDITORIAL: D.C.'s fuel fad drives us into a corn crunch

The editorial make some valid points.

Speculators Flee Canola, Wheat Still Uncertain: Still things are good for canola

This should be a correction not a melt down.

Speculators Flee Canola, Wheat Still Uncertain

Don Bousquet is still optimistic when he talks about pessimistic news. AMAZING!!

My take away points from the article are:

• This looks like a correction in an overbought market. I've been wrong before and it's not my money riding on this, but that's what I think
  
• It's sad that farmer selling increases as soon as price goes down. Earlier a lot of my guys sold a %% of new crop (10% to over %30) into the rising market. It is mentally hard to sell into a lifting market, but you gotta do it


• Stronger signal for wheat. And not just weather signals. More corn, more feeds will effect wheat price to the upside. If more wheat goes into feed ration, same again.


• Funds are mentioned again. These managers are buying and selling off charts. That's not a evil thing, that's just how some funds are doing it.

Exceptional Circumstances (EC) assistance: Australia's Goverment Reaction to Drought

Exceptional Circumstances (EC) assistance

Just taking a break from TV. I googled canola in Australia and this was on the search.

My only comment is the extent of the drought does not appear to be as bad as I had thought. I hope things work out for the Aussies. The problems there with moisture produced a short crop (last year). That played into increased barley price and my understanding is it has effected canola to.

Enjoy I'm back to watching curling. A local girl is playing for Manitoba at the Canada Games

Go Bison

Agronomy of Annual Crops for Forage and Pasture: I seem to be posting a lot of gov. stuff lately (?)

Agronomy of Annual Crops for Forage and Pasture

I had a call today about buying corn for silage. The producer has grown silage corn off and on for 5 years. He told me today it has never produced like he wanted. I recall 10 tonnes was the top yield.

We talked about some options. I suggested barley or oats. Much cheaper to grow and more reliable yield ( lower of course). but the producer was concerned about the land being dry. He had grown clover last year and it can dry the land out. His impression of corn is it handles dry conditions better.

Anyway I will be looking for a good Roundup Ready Silage corn for him on Monday. Enjoy the post , it looks at some options for silage.

University of Manitoba: Natural Systems Agriculture: Low-Input Cereal Crops in No-Till

University of Manitoba: Natural Systems Agriculture: Low-Input Cereal Crops in No-Till

I was googling for information on fertilizing oats and googled up this piece. The main jist (I don't know if jist is a word?) of the article is using rotations and crop competition to reduce input costs.

I'm big on reduced input especially herbicides. Have a look at the article.

Scott works for MAFRI (that's really the Manitoba Dept of AG) as a Diversification Specialist. I don't remember that being mentioned in the article (?) He is well respected in the area and if you get a chance to attend one of his field days or hear him speak, do so. It is well worth the time.